Dick Morris

Karl Rove

At times Tuesday night, it sounded as if President Barack Obama didn't know what kind of speech he wanted to give. Was it a foreign policy address aimed at assuring a world-wide audience of America's resolve in the war against militant Islam? Or was it an election stump speech to confirm to voters that the economy is job No. 1 for this president and his party?

The speech's best moments were those praising the commitment, courage and sacrifice of America's military. The president powerfully said that "our troops are the steel in our ship of state," and all who serve join "an unbroken line of heroes that stretches from Lexington to Gettysburg; from Iwo Jima to Inchon; from Khe Sanh to Kandahar."

For someone who had been such a vocal war opponent, he was generous in acknowledging what our troops accomplished—defeating "a regime that had terrorized its people" and helping "Iraq seize the chance for a better future." Because of our troops, he said, "Iraq has the opportunity to embrace a new destiny, even though many challenges remain."

As a foreign policy address, however, the speech missed the mark. While Mr. Obama did acknowledge that the U.S. "intends to sustain and strengthen our leadership" in the world, most foreign observers will probably remember the president's tone of haste, withdrawal and even retreat. His phrase, "It is time to turn the page," caught many an ear around the world—and not to America's advantage.

Mr. Obama's was...
Publ.Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Honey, I Shrunk My Approval Ratings

In what will rank as one of the all-time presidential PR disasters, we're now well over half way through what the White House called "the summer of recovery." And what a recovery it's been.

Earlier this month, first-time claims for unemployment hit a nine-month high. The unemployment rate remains at 9.5% and 18.4% of workers are out of a job, can only get part-time work, or have given up looking for a job altogether. Sales of existing homes dropped 27% from June to July, hitting the lowest point since data were first collected in 1999. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 50.4 in July, continuing a slide that started in February. And the stock market is down 11% from its peak in April.

All of this has helped shatter public confidence in the president. In early May, Mr. Obama's approval on the economy in the YouGov/Polimetrix poll was 42%. By mid-August, it was 35%—a frightening number for Democrats less than 70 days from a midterm election. According to this week's Reuters poll, 72% are "very" worried about jobs and 67% "very concerned" about government spending.

Mr. Obama's credibility is crumbling, and for good reason: He and his people are saying things people don't believe. At the start of his summer of recovery road show, the president flatly asserted that last year's massive stimulus package had "worked." Vice President Joe Biden, not to be outdone, promised monthly job gains of up to 500,000 and insisted that the recov...
Publ.Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Deconstructing Harry Reid

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can say the darndest things. He certainly did last week when he proclaimed: "I don't know how anyone of Hispanic heritage could be a Republican." That must have thrilled his son, Rory, who's trailing a Hispanic Republican, Judge Brian Sandoval, in the Nevada governor's race by 16 points in the most recent Mason-Dixon poll.

Mr. Reid can also do inexplicable things, such as tentatively schedule a floor debate in September on extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts that expire on Jan. 1.

There are many ways this debate can hurt Democrats in November's election, such as deepening their image as tax-and-spend liberals. There are only a few ways it could help, such as if they agreed with Republicans to keep the Bush tax cuts in place. Rightly sensing trouble and trying to protect vulnerable House Democrats from yet another unpopular vote, Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared that her chamber would take up the issue only if the Senate passed a bill first.

That's unlikely. At least three Senate Democrats support renewing the Bush-era tax cuts: Sens. Evan Bayh, Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson. This puts Mr. Reid at least four votes short of gaining cloture on any tax increase he'd pursue.

By arguing that now is not the time to raise taxes, Messrs. Bayh, Conrad and Nelson may be out of step with their Democratic colleagues and the White House, but not with the American people. The Aug. 5-9 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reported 71% of A...
Publ.Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The Blame Bush Strategy Won't Work

To save themselves in the midterm elections, Democrats are counting on selling two themes: The state of the economy is all George W. Bush's fault, and Republican policies will take us backwards. President Obama relished going to Texas this week to blame his predecessor for the current bad economy.

Nice try, but it won't work. Don't take my word. This is what Mr. Obama's pollster, Joel Beneson, has found. The Benenson Strategy Group wasn't exactly quite this blunt in its report for the "Third Way," a centrist Democratic organization. But its data was.

In its poll released in July, Benenson asked, "Generally speaking, who is more responsible for the recent economic recession—President Barack Obama or President George W. Bush?" The answer was Mr. Bush 53%, Mr. Obama 26%, and "Don't know" 21%.

But answers to important issues like who's responsible for the recession are rarely binary. Buried in the "Third Way" data was a different answer that went unmentioned in its covering memo. The question of who's responsible for the recession was asked a second way, with more possible culprits.

Here the biggest blame for the recession went to "big banks and Wall Street" (34%), followed by "American consumers who lived beyond their means" (24%). Thirteen percent blamed Mr. Obama, 20% blamed Mr. Bush, and 9% were still in the "don't know category." Put another way, at least 80% didn't blame Mr. Bush, as Mr. Obama obsessively does.

More importantly, ...
Publ.Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Will the GOP Storm the Statehouses?

It must have been gloomy for Democrats when the nation's governors met last month in Boston for their annual summer get-together. The reason: If congressional races look bad for Democrats, the 37 gubernatorial contests are even worse.

A quick survey of the political landscape shows six of the seven Democratic governors running for re-election are polling under 50% and in danger of losing, while all six GOP incumbents seeking re-election are expected to win. In the 24 open gubernatorial contests, Republicans lead in 15 and are tied in three others.

More than half of Americans are likely to have a new chief executive for their state come November. Democrats are burdened by President Barack Obama's low approval ratings and, in some open races, by widespread public dissatisfaction with the state's retiring Democratic incumbent.

That's not to say the GOP has had all smooth sailing. In Colorado, plagiarism charges have crippled Republican frontrunner Scott McInnis. Less dangerously, Florida Republicans are locked in a bitter primary. But these are the exceptions.

The GOP's edge in statehouse contests could have major ramifications for a long time to come, including next year's redistricting of the House of Representatives. The more GOP governors, the stronger Republican dominance of the process will be. Eighteen of the 21 states that could add or lose congressional seats have governors' races this fall. There also will be a lot more R...
Publ.Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0500